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Update: Most states are projected out as of 1:55 a.m. CST with the exception of a lone Democrat race in New Mexico where Clinton and Obama are tied. The full tallies are not in but enough so that the states can be called one way or another. DNC rules have all Democratic states splitting the delegates proportionally so the numbers should change throughout the night.

John McCain emerged as the clear front runner on the Republican side, helped along by a big win in California and the fact that he took most of the winner takes all states. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are in a very tight battle with Hillary winning most of the big states.

CNN broke down the exit polling on the right as follows:

Republican conservative voters appear to be evenly split between Romney and Huckabee, according to preliminary exit polls of Super Tuesday voters.

Of those who voted for Huckabee or Romney, about 80 percent identified themselves as conservative, according to the polls.

Only 49 percent of McCain’s voters said they were conservative, a sign that the Arizona senator’s efforts over the last week to placate conservative voters has not paid off.

I live in a conservative corner of Illinois and it was clear with people I spoke to that John McCain was advantaged heavily by his military hero status. Many people didn’t know where the candidates stood on the more granular issues and their individual records. On that part this is a fault of both the candidates and the media but is typical I suspect for primaries. I took a quick look at the Illinois exit polls and John McCain ran strong in most every question which is an example of a general vagueness on the issues. For instance 41% of those polled in Illinois thought John McCain was most qualified to manage the economy to Mitt Romney’s 32%. This is a colossal failure on the part of team Romney who should have taken that question hands down.

There was also an indication that voters in Illinois believed John McCain gave them the best chance to defeat Hillary Clinton in the general election. This is a good job on the part of the McCain campaign. As such however it is a roll of the dice, one that could be difficult if Barack Obama takes the nod and rolls in as a candidate of change.

The Democrat side of the picture is much more complicated at the moment. The vote is pretty evenly split among delegates. Hillary Clinton won most of the big states but didn’t manage to pull away with the delegates as did McCain because the Democrats dish out their delegates proportionally in all of their states as opposed to the Republicans who have a large number of winner takes all races.

Personally I think the Democrats got this one right. It makes sense to award delegates proportionally to get a good feel of where the electorate really stands on the candidates and the issues.

Obama had a good showing in the caucus states whereas Hillary fared better in the primary states. With the proportional voting rules we can expect the delegate count to change right up to the morning. I expect that Hillary Clinton and Obama will be very close when all is said and done on the count with Hillary in the 840’s and Obama in the 830’s. Wow!

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Update: Mike Huckabee is giving a speech. Interesting, strong on border, strong on taxes, touting 2nd amendment record. It’s strange, John McCain helped Huckabee make this speech by giving him WV, could he rue the day down the line? Hard to tell since McCain was going to lose the state in any event. Huckabee has a chance of taking Missouri although it appears that his numbers may be leveling off there. It’s clear though, Huckabee is staying in the race and not dropping out anytime soon.

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The results are starting to roll in with some surprises and a few problems being reported in the difference between exit polls and the actual vote count.

First the surprises:

Mike Huckabee is on course to take 5 states with wins in West Virginia, Alabama and Arkansas. Recently Huckabee had been thought of as a spoiler, and still is, but a strong showing in 5 or 6 states is having an impact on the two front runners.

John McCain is having trouble in his home state. It appears that he is getting pummeled by conservatives in addition to voters who feel betrayed by John McCain’s stance supporting amnesty. John McCain gained an advantage by Giuliani’s exit sending 198 delegates McCain’s way, a huge chunk in the North East where he was expected to run strong.

Mitt Romney has only won his home state of Massachusetts and Utah but keep in mind that Romney campaigned heavily in California and some caucus states that will not report until later this evening.

Missouri is proving to be tight for all three Republicans. This is a winner take all state.

On the left it appears that Barack Obama is running a good campaign but trails behind Hillary Clinton who won big in New York as expected. Obama is running strong among liberals and the black vote with a big win in Georgia, Kansas, Alabama, Delaware and Illinois.

Perhaps the biggest surprise comes in the Kennedy’s lackluster payoff on the Obama endorsement. Hillary Clinton won Massachusetts in a result that underscores how overrated the Kennedy endorsement was. The media should be ashamed for making such a big deal of that.

The interesting issue that is starting to take shape is the tightness of the left. Currently the projections show Clinton with 279 delegates to Barack Obama’s 210. This is a potential problem for the left. The media has been concentrating very heavily on the chance of a brokered convention for Republicans but they have ignored the steam roller coming down the Democrat tracks. The Democrats will face the possibility that Super Delegates will have to make a tough choice: pay back the Clinton’s for years of political favoritism and alienate the black vote or go with change.

See Also: Talking Points Memo, Captains Quarters, Michelle Malkin, Hot Air

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