I’ve been finding very disturbing the intense hostility that conservatives direct against John McCain. So much so that I wrote a very long rant on the subject, which American Thinker was kind enough to publish and which I reprinted below:

Perhaps because I’m a neocon, and not a dyed-in-the-wool, native-born conservative, I look at John McCain, with all his flaws, and still think that he’s a pretty darn good candidate for our time. More importantly, I think that Obama is a very dangerous candidate precisely because of the time in which we live. I therefore find disturbing the number of conservative purists who insist that they’re going to teach John McCain — and everyone else, dammit! — a lesson, either by sitting out the election or by throwing their vote away on a third party candidate. This is a kind of political game that may be fun to play in uninteresting eras, but I think it’s suicidal given the pivotal existential issues we now face.

It’s easy to target John McCain’s flaws. Most recently, he’s managed to buy into the whole green machine just as it’s becoming clear that the greenies probably rushed their fences, and leapt into hysteria well in advance of their facts. Still, whether because you view the world through green colored glasses, or because you really hate funding totalitarian governments that are hostile to America, there is a lot to be said for exploring energy alternatives. McCain’s free market approach should help that effort. Also, by the time he becomes President, there should be a sufficient aggregation of rationally based information about the climate to allow McCain a graceful retreat from a foolish campaign promise.

McCain also seems to be unresponsive to the feeling ordinary Americans have that illegal immigration is a big problem. This feeling arises, not because we’re all xenophobic nutcases, but because we recognize a few fundamental truths: (a) American law starts at American borders, and it is deeply destructive to society’s fabric to have an immigrant’s first act in this country be an illegal one; (b) a country’s fundamental sovereign right is the ability to control its own borders; (c) unchecked immigration provides a perfect pathway, not merely for the field worker, but for the bomb-maker; and (d) immigrants who come here should be committed to this country and its values, and shouldn’t just by moseying over to grab some illegal bucks to send to the folks back home.

Nevertheless, while illegal immigrants are irritating, they’re not an existential threat that can bring America to its knees within the next four years. They are a problem, but not an imminent one.

McCain may also never be absolved of the sin he committed with the McCain-Feingold Act, a legislative bit of bungling that has George Soros singing daily Hosannas. However, that’s done. There is no doubt that it reflects badly on McCain’s judgment, but I think it’s a sin that needs to be ignored, if not forgiven, in light of the person facing McCain on the other side of the ballot box.

You see, from my point of view, this election isn’t really about John McCain at all. It’s about Barack Obama. Of course, it shouldn’t be about Barack Obama. During a time of war and economic insecurity, one of the two presidential candidates should not be a man who has no life history, beyond a remarkable ability at self-aggrandizement, and no legislative history, despite a few years paddling about in the Illinois State Legislature and three years (count ‘em, three) doing absolutely nothing in the United States Senate.

That Obama is a man of no accomplishments or experience, though, doesn’t mean that he hasn’t managed to acquire some bad friends and bad ideas. The friends are easy to identify: Comrade . . . I mean Rev. Wright; Michelle “the Termagant” Obama; the explosive Ayers and Dohrn duo; Samantha “Hillary is a Monster” Power; Robert “Hamas” Malley; Zbigniew “the Jews are out to get me” Brzezinski; etc. Over the years, he’s sought out, paid homage to, and been advised by a chilling collection of people who dislike America and are ready to give the benefit of the doubt to anyone who talks the Marxist talk and walks the Marxist walk.

Obama’s ideas are as unnerving as his friends. To my mind, the Jihad that Islamists have declared against us is the fundamental issue of our time. Thanks to the nature of modern asymmetrical warfare, the fact that these Jihadists number in the tens of thousands, rather than the millions, and that they’re often free operators, not formal armies, does nothing to lessen the serious threat they pose to American freedoms. We’ve seen with our own eyes the fact that, using our own instruments of civilization, 19 determined men can kill almost 3,000 people in a matter of hours.
[More...]

| Trackback URL | Comments (No Comments)

I recall hearing a guest on talk radio (I forget which show) saying that a recession is defined by very specific economic indicators — and that, despite the loose use of the word “recession” by uninformed media types, those economic indicators were not present. Perhaps that’s not surprising, given that the economy is growing, something even the AP has to concede, although it paints that fact in the grimmest of terms:

The bruised economy limped through the first quarter, growing at just a 0.6 percent pace as housing and credit problems forced people and businesses alike to hunker down.

The country’s economic growth during January through March was the same as in the final three months of last year, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. The statistic did not meet what economists consider the definition of a recession, which is a contraction of the economy. This means that although the economy is stuck in a rut, it is still managing to grow, even if slightly.

Given that the economy is still moving forward, those $600 checks the President is sending home may indeed be the difference between stalling and sliding backwards, on the one hand, and continuing that forward growth, on the other hand — just as was the case in 2001.

[Discuss This Topic with Bookworm]

| Trackback URL | Comments (No Comments)

The Mortgage Mess

The Federal Reserve in 2002 offered the same remedy for an economic slump as they do today, they slashed interest rates to record lows which created an overheated housing market, The Fed was wrong then and they are about to repeat the same mistake again but this time it is more significant because they are fueling inflation.

The Housing Market is unique because it varies by location to location so it is hard to generalize when speaking about it. What happened to the housing market in Florida, Arizona and Las Vegas which saw unbelievably high growth in the value of homes and is not comparable to the Mid West or other areas which saw average growth. Over the past ten years just about every homeowner has seen the value of their house increase by a National Average of 10% per year. (Value has doubled in ten years.)

Nationally housing prices have fallen by an average of 10% and we may see more decline yet this year until the mortgage mess is corrected. In real terms that house you own for the past ten years may only be worth ¾ of increased value and not double. Mortgages are based on the LTV (Loan-to-value) and presently the average mortgage balance is 47% of the original loan on a National Average. This indicates that most Americans have substantial equity in their homes.

Home mortgages are a commodity they are brought and sold in bundles in the free market just like stocks on the exchanges by large institutions. Rarely does the originator of a loan hold it through its term. Just like all free markets from time to time go through a period of corrections, this is where the housing market is today. The market is telling us that prices rose to fast and to high and it is time for an adjustment.

Owning a home is still one of the best investments that an American family can make.

The latest numbers show 83 out of 10,000 mortgages are in foreclosure (less than 1%) and 5.2 % are delinquent which means that 94% of Americans are meeting their obligations.

But what has added chaos to the present mortgage crises is what I call the Enron Syndrome, Walk-a-ways and an incompetent Federal Reserve headed by Ben Bernanke. And to this you can add politicians who have ‘no clue’ what they are talking about but see the mortgage crises as a vote buying scheme.

The Enron Syndrome – The top dogs in the large institutions are nervous because what happened at Enron where the chiefs in charge went to jail because they OVER valued their holdings. So what we have today is caution and to be sure the large institutions are now UNDER valuing their assets which has added to the stock market slump.

Walk-a-Ways – I don’t have any exact numbers just yet but what is happening in Florida, Arizona and Las Vegas is people who speculated on Condos/Homes are putting the keys in the mail box and simply walking away. These are not poor people who need help they are investor who put 10% down (nominally speaking) looking to make a profit on a heated market and have seen value of their units decline beyond their investment and decided to minimize their loss.

So when everyone assumes that the foreclosure problem is totally among poor people they are wrong.

Ben Bernanke and The Fed – The more I have watched him and listened to what he has to say before Congress I have come to the conclusion that he no more sure of what he is doing than the man in the moon. I see a man struggling with his words and this leads to no confidence vote in my mind.

His latest suggestion that Lenders should renegotiate terms with borrowers in foreclosure borders on rank amateurism from an economist to pure insanity. He has suggested that lenders discount the principle amount of these loans to a point where borrower can afford the payment. His reasoning is that it will be cheaper for the lenders than foreclosing which is costly.

So for those in the 94% group of Americans who are making their mortgage payments on time I would say… I want a PRINCIPLE REDUCTION too and I deserve it just as much as anyone else! The idea that we could discount every mortgage in this country is beyond ridiculous because at that point we would have an economic collapse.

But the idea that we should help a few who made bad investments in the housing market is just as insane as to say we should help investors in the stock market whose stocks have gone down.

At this point we will have total chaos in our economic system, and you can see why I say the Fed chairman’s proposal is insane, especially coming from a man in his position.

Beyond that it breaks the basic contractual principles of law whereby lenders can not depend on the sanctity of a contract. Mortgages would become an endangered species.

What McCain has to do is come out for protecting the 94%’s home equity against deflation and guarding against inflation is a must. If you have to choose sides I would rather be on the 94% side. If need be he can call for changes in the Federal Reserve System.

Part III – Oil and Energy Policy (Tomorrow)

[Discuss This Topic with The Bear]

| Trackback URL | Comments (No Comments)

The economy is a mess and inflation is upon us, history has shown that in an election year the party in power (The White House) will feel the wrath of the American voter.

Whether we are in a period of minimal growth or recession has yet to be determined but the reality of the situation is the economy is not healthy. Real wages have declined and the cruelest of all taxes is upon the American public, inflation which reduces the buying power of consumers.

And add to this is the “climate of perception”, the Democrats and the MSM will trumpet economic negativity and the anti-war left is about to run a series of TV ads blaming the Iraq War for the slowdown in the economy. Nothing could be farther from the truth but “perception” can be become reality as the drum beat goes on and I would expect no less from a party that always puts their own well being ahead of the interests of the country.

The true cost of the Iraq War is $500 billion plus according to the Congressional Budget Office, not the trillion dollar numbers tossed around by the MSM. On average the United States is spending about $125 billion dollars a year on the war. Now this is a significant amount of money but in a country that has a $14 trillion GDP it represents less than 1% of GDP.

Last fall I was asked by the Republican National Committee to blog on their behalf, but I declined because (and told them so) this blog is my own personal venue to speak my mind and this old Bear will serve no master. I will direct my fire at anyone who deserves it and party affiliation has no bearing when it comes to what I believe is right for America.

With that said, today I offer the Republican Party and their Presidential nominee, John McCain some sound advice on how to get conservatives to support him, for without the conservative vote, a potential McCain Presidency will go down in flames.

The true culprits for our economic woes are varied and many but given the state of the economy it will be the number one issue of the upcoming election.

On The Economy

Most American are economic morons and do not understand the way free markets work, so McMaverick economic message most be delivered in a way to explain in every common day language his proposals to right the economic ship.

The Value of the DollarThe American dollar has been in free fall and is at this time is at record lows as compared to other currencies in the world. Since this is a global economy (and it is) the more the dollars declines, the more expensive it becomes to buy foreign goods, oil and commodities for the American consumer.Real wages (buying power) have declined because of the weak dollar and for those of you who live in an economic abyss this means it cost more for the food on your table and gas at the pump.The manipulation of the value of the dollar comes under the jurisdiction of the Federal Reserve and they are caught between a rock and a hard place at this time. The FED has chosen to ignore the dollar and fight our economic slump by reducing interest rates to stimulate the economy. This in my mind is like worshiping false idols because any lower reduction in interest rates at this time will only fuel inflation which is now above the 3% acceptable level.Inflation is a killer tax because it reduces the consumers’ buying power! (But then I repeat myself)

Ronald Reagan once said (and I paraphrase) “No country can have a strong economy without a strong currency.” I endorse this and so should John McCain. McCain has to explain this in simple terms as I have tried above to the American public.

Related:

Democrats Blame the War for Crisis in the Economy

[Discuss This Topic with The Bear]

| Trackback URL | Comments (No Comments)

Phil says “for the sake of showing a pulse, I’ll go ahead and post,” and then sets himself ablaze with five great pieces:

Economic Stimulus
Beliefs and Religion Politics
Meet the New Boss
McCain Hit Piece
PhobiaPhobia

An excerpt from the economic stimulus, and then a few words from myself about it…

Why is not taking money from us so we have more to spend in the first place not going to help the economy, but “giving” us a “gift” of our own tax dollars so we have more money to spend … will? Riddle me this, mmmmm?

Well, I agree with the progressives about this election: Conservatism has been found not to work, and will therefore be sidelined for a time. I disagree with the progressives on the “for whom” part of it. I maintain that conservatism has been found not to work for those who want cheap and easy political power. And so on that foreign planet inside the beltway, people with R and D after their names have pledged together to promote liberalism because they’ve found it is more conducive to their own ambitions.

For the rest of us out here on earth, conservatism is the better choice. Too bad we won’t see anything of it for a time. Our “leaders” don’t like it.

And Phil touches on something that proves this point nicely — the war may be controversial at this time, but supply-side economics are definitely not. They are factual. The notion that a lower tax rate can bring in increased revenues, has been proven time and time again.

If the conservative plank was communicated this way, advertised this way, I maintain everything would be different. Imagine a few recitations of Winston Churchill’s quote about a man sitting in a bucket trying to pull himself up by the handle. Imagine hearing that as many times as you’ve heard that phony Jefferson quote about dissent.

Just imagine it. It would change everything.

But it isn’t going to happen, because in 2008, phony feel-good-ism is in vogue.

We cut taxes. We experienced economic growth. We applied what we learned from this lesson by electing a left-winger who’s going to sell us some nonsense about the globular-wormening boogeyman, and certainly, definitely, absolutely, fer sure, will raise taxes.

Just try to explain that one to your grandchildren.

[Discuss this article with MKFreeberg over at House of Eratosthenes...]

| Trackback URL | Comments (No Comments)

I heard this NPR story about Army recruiting while I was in the car today. I’m at a computer that doesn’t have audio, so I can’t check specific material in the story. I’m therefore relying on my memory about most of the points I heard. The story’s premise is spelled out on the NPR website:

The U.S. economy is getting stronger and the U.S. war in Iraq is getting more unpopular. Normally that spells trouble for military recruiters. But for nearly two years the Army has managed to meet or exceed its recruiting and retention goals.

The story rather schizophrenically says that people don’t join the Army to get rich, but then notes that the Pentagon is recruiting people by offering them more money. Go figure.

In the report, Ret. Gen’l Barry McCaffrey, who is very angry, says that the Army is faking it: it publishes low recruiting goals on the principle that anything is better than nothing. That is, the Army can’t get what it really needs, but it can get better than zero, so it boasts about getting better than zero. That confused me a bit, because it seemed to me that the Army needs what it needs, and that all the fudging in the world won’t change the facts on the ground. It also doesn’t address the high reenlistment rate, which is a fact that stands on its own, and that speaks to something about military service that must be fulfilling for those who join up in the first place.
Most confusing to me were two points this report made. They were confusing, not because of how they were presented in the story, but because of how poorly they mesh with certain memes about the U.S. military. The first point was that the enlistee age has climbed up to 42. I can’t remember if that’s an average (I doubt it), or just a frequently occurring number. In other words, this isn’t just a young man’s Army any more. The second point was the horror, the absolute horror, that the high school graduation rate of Army enlistees has dropped from 90% to 80%. These two points sent lots of scattered thoughts racing through my little synapses.

First off, since that the Left has long considered the Army the great idiot unwashed, why is it so horrified that high school graduate enlistments have dropped by 10%? As Kerry made clear, the Army is for the uneducated. As for me, even respecting the Army as I do (and I do), I was actually stunned that the number of high school graduates was so high. Even at the “lower” rate of 80%, the Army must have one of the most educated workforces in America, outside of white collar jobs that demand college or post-graduate degrees as a pre-requisite for employment (such as doctor, lawyer, architect, etc.).

Second, the little throwaway about the higher number of older enlistees also completely undermined the Left’s constantly reiterated point about the Army preying, not just on the uneducated, but on the very young. You just can’t paint your 42 year old enlistee as some baby-faced illiterate, who’s being manipulated by an Army recruiter in a sharp uniform with shiny shoes.
[More...]

| Trackback URL | Comments (No Comments)

Courtesy of the WSJ(registration required):

Did you know…?

During the first 64 months of the Clinton economic recovery, real average hourly wages fell 0.2% and unemployment dropped to 5.5%; during the first 64 months of the Bush economic recovery, real average hourly wages rose 1.8% and unemployment dropped to 4.4%.

And as a Webloggin side note, WSJ also said:

The Misery Index was first employed by Jimmy Carter in 1976 to unseat President Gerald Ford. That year, the index, which is calculated by adding the unemployment rate to the inflation rate, averaged 13.2%. Four years later it had climbed to 18.2%, and Ronald Reagan used it to unseat Mr. Carter.

Today the Misery Index isn’t revealing much misery. As of February 2007, it was only 6.8% (4.5% unemployment plus a 2.3% 12-month increase in the PCE deflator) — a level bettered in only four years since 1967, and all those years were in the so-called “bubble economy” of the …

[Discuss this post over at the Machete of Truth...]

| Trackback URL | Comments (No Comments)

The New York Times has never met a capitalist country it likes, but that doesn’t stop it from occasionally observing the unpalatable truth:

Nearly four decades ago, South Vietnamese leaders mapped out their battle plans inside the presidential palace here. When they lost the war, the palace became the base for the Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee, which worked to impose tight Communist control.

But in September it was the scene of a very different gathering: a board meeting of the Hongkong and Shanghai Bank.

In the three decades since Vietnam has gone from communism to a form of capitalism, it has begun surpassing many neighbors. It has Asia’s second-fastest-growing economy, with 8.4 percent growth last year, trailing only China’s, and the pace of exports to the United States is rising faster than even China’s. (Emphasis mine.)

Hmm. Maybe capitalism is good for more than oppressing widows, orphans and Third Worlders. Maybe, just maybe, it is the approach that best benefits those for whom the liberals weep.

[Discuss over at the Bookworm Room...]

| Trackback URL | Comments (No Comments)