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Richard Miniter is reporting that al-Qaeda forces have been ordered to retreat from Baghdad in anticipation of the 21,000 extra forces that President Bush is deploying to help calm the area. This is a tactical change for the terrorists who have been known to display unrealistic confidence and bravado under the direction of previous leaders such as Zarqawi. His death paved the way for new leadership to take charge - one that is implementing a more military strategic style of command than the traditional “martyr for the cause” approach.

The apparent evacuation of Baghdad by al Qaeda forces comes from direct orders issued by al-Masri, the former soldier who took control of the Iraqi wing of al Qaeda following the June 2006 bombing death of Zarqawi.

Initially, the intelligence officer informed Pajamas, the Baghdad-based AQ fighters did not want to leave. Al-Masri had to send unequivocal orders for their retreat, adding that one of the lessons from the Fallujah campaign was that Americans have learned how to prevail in house-to-house fighting. Masri said that remaining in Baghdad was a ‘no-win situation’ for the terrorists.

Iraq the Model was the original source for Miniter’s report which has subsequently been confirmed by military intelligence officers.

It is important to understand the evolution of the war if we are to grasp the effectiveness of strategies that will no doubt be incorporated into future war plans. The United States is not engaged in a traditional war. The terrorists are experts at fading into the population and striking with regularity using proven guerrilla warfare tactics. The American and coalition forces are constantly adjusting and it appears that the effort is starting to pay off in that respect. The surge and purge sweeps have proven to be a no-win situation for the terrorists and they have decided to run rather than make a stand in a decidedly losing effort.

This news is both good and bad. On the good side it validates that our tactics on the ground are proving to be effective. We are getting better at running the terrorists out and killing or detaining them before they can reintegrate back into the insurgency.

But it also demonstrates that the al-Qaeda leadership is becoming more sophisticated in their approach to combating Western forces. They are at a disadvantage in just about every aspect with the exception of the press who act as a mouthpiece for terrorist propaganda. Losing a battle in the surge would not be a very good strategic move and would deal a big blow to the terrorists.

There are other troubling aspects of Al-Masri who took over when Zarqawi was killed. He is reported to have been trained in military strategy by the soviets (strange how they continually come up in these discussions). This is why he is considered more dangerous than previous leaders such as Zarqawi.

Al-Masri’s evacuation order – assuming that it is authentic – reveals that al Qaeda in Iraq leader has a good grasp of a tactical situation. “He is far more formidable than Zarqawi was,” the intelligence officer said, because of his training at Soviet special warfare schools.

He is also thought to be known by the alias Abu Hamza al-Muhajir. Wikipedia reports as follows:

According to Caldwell, Masri joined Ayman al-Zawahiri’s Egyptian Islamic Jihad in 1982, where he was Zawahiri’s protégé. He remained a member after that organization was merged into Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda. He went to bin Laden’s Farouk (or al-Farouq) camp in Afghanistan in 1999, where he worked with explosives, especially truck bombs and roadside bombs like those currently used in Iraq. After the American invasion of Afghanistan, he went to Iraq, where he took charge of al-Qaeda’s operations in the southern part of the country. The United States military said that Masri “helped draw other insurgent groups into al-Qaeda’s fold.” DefenseLINK News reported that Masri “helped establish the Baghdad cell of al-Qaeda in early 2003. Soon after, he “worked the ‘rat line’ down the Euphrates River Valley supplying suicide bombers via Syria.” Alexis Debat, a leading authority on Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, said Masri was in charge of al-Qaeda’s overseas networks beginning in 2004. Masri organized fund-raising and recruitment efforts in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East to aid in al-Qaeda’s activities in Iraq. One envoy he sent for those purposes was Yasser al-Misri, arrested in Algeria in July 2005.

Masri was “engaged” in the 2004 battle of Fallujah, Iraq, and is suspected of involvement in the 2004, 2005 and 2006 Sinai bombings in Egypt.

Iraq The Model sums up the stakes:

… the bad guys are adjusting their plans as the government and US military adjust theirs. The clear and hold tactic means militants will have little chance to maneuver within Baghdad like they used to do to work around previous crackdowns so now they are planning to make long-range maneuvers in provinces outside Baghdad.

Although the main objective of the new security plan is securing Baghdad, it would be a good idea for the military commanders to keep an eye on a few other provinces because we don’t want to fight the same men twice, or thrice!

The battle in Iraq is proving to be a pivotal battle in the war against terror. Those who want to cut and run are fooling themselves if they think this will somehow make Americans safer. On the contrary, a loss in Iraq will deal a severe blow to American security.

Others: Captains Quarters, Pajama’s Media

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